Australia: The Carbon Pariah
Today a new US President will be sworn in and the eyes of the world will watch power shift Westward. Of course it will not shift back to pre-Trump levels, if this is even possible. What it will mean for Australia though is that overnight the cluster of countries willing to delay or deny action on climate change will seem much much leaner.
Biden has promised action on climate change, pledging money in the trillions. And while the next four years will see an escalation of friction between China and the US, the one thing they appear to agree on is that without a climate plan - whichever victories are reached in the ongoing trade, diplomacy and territory wars will be pyrrhic.
Consider then Australia’s international position - a country that has gone all-in on coal exports. As of today fifty-five percent of its exports going to trading partners that have since vowed to decarbonise (or close to it) by 2050.
Australia is an island in so many respects. It takes a long time for news to reach here. Many are convinced the hackneyed stereotypes of the 80s still apply to our international image. The world does not see us as a nation of Crocodile Dundees anymore - we cannot just crack a beer and spin a yarn and suddenly everyone will forget we’re the second largest coal exporter in the world and the largest exporter of LNG. Beyond our shores the historical memory extends at the very least to this time last year when the whole country was a raging inferno. Enough of them will be perplexed that images of kangaroos leaping across a flaming treelines, of besmirched and anguished faces of volunteer firefighters, of towns reduced to ash-heaps of smouldering wood and twisted metal had no impact on this country’s commitment to climate action.
Our regional status is also a joke. Australia happens to be situated in a neighbourhood most vulnerable to climate change. Island nations that pepper the South Pacific - face an existential threat from it. Australia that likes to present itself as a scaled down regional USA - with a long roster of diplomatic cliques - the Pacific family, mateship. (again what a failure of imagination - why do we always have such tired antiquated images?) Our neighbouring countries are under no illusion as to our economic course. Increasingly we are being less as a member of the family and more as an arrogant and two-faced outsider.
The complete lack of acknowledging climate change is so deeply systemic that our options out are limited. For decades our manufacturing sector has been whittled down to almost nothing. The infamous Harvard Growth Lab Atlas of Economic Complexity ranks Australia 93rd having dropped a whopping 22 positions - meaning it is much dumber than it was last time. It also shows that our economy is finely tuned towards the export of commodities. Momentum is also at play here - typically efforts to shift complexity take a long time to change direction. How do we get smarter - so our economy can be based on knowledge or innovation - words that have been reduced to tag lines for federal government spin? It requires a thriving education system. Unfortunately this too has been privatised within an inch of its life to attract the international student dollar.
While if companies like Atlasssian show - you can be a hugely successful company in Australia through risk taking and innovating to a high level of complexity, the same payoff is possible through mining or simply buying up old property and throwing up towering pre-fabricated “luxury” apartments.
In his book Superpower Ross Garnaut has outlined the opportunities for Australia to change course - and become a renewable energy superpower. And while it is economically viable it fails to address the complete lack of political will - the entrenched vested interested and a media sphere that has capitalised on an increasingly craven ideological bent towards fossil fuels. For Australia more than any other country in the developed world - everything is at stake - our reputation, our economy and even our survival. The next few years will be the most critical in our history.